IESE Insight - Decision Analysis

Are we perceiving more polarization than there actually is?

Barasz, Kate; Kim, Tami; Evangelidis, Ioannis Are our inferences about Trump supporters or Brexiteers accurate? The more extreme the position, the more we may jump to faulty conclusions, says research by Kate Barasz. In an increasingly polarized world, understanding this cognitive bias is key.

How Not to Lose Your Head in a Bidding War

Hafenbrädl, Sebastian; Woike, Jan K. Heading into a competitive auction, you should take steps to anticipate how potential escalations could change your frame of mind. Research by Sebastian Hafenbrädl uncovers two things that improve outcomes in these adrenaline-filled circumstances.

Probability or Price? Form Matters When it Comes to Risk

Müller-Trede, Johannes; Sher, Shlomi; McKenzie, Craig R. M. Whether or not you go out on a limb may depend on how the numbers are presented. IESE's Johannes Müller-Trede investigates the difference between a percentage and a numerical value in shaping risk attitudes -- and offers up some practical applications.

Taste Test: Anticipating Client Preferences Before They Do

Müller-Trede, Johannes; Choshen-Hillel, Shoham; Barneron, Meir; Yaniv, Ilan Can the wisdom of the crowd apply in matters of taste? New IESE research examines how divergent points of view can lead to more accurate predictions for customer preference -- and make for better decision-making.

Blowing the Budget: Analytics, Risk and the Race to Overspend

Güçlü, Burçin; Canela, Miguel Ángel For savvy marketing, the more information you have, the better, right? Not necessarily, says Miguel Ángel Canela. While investing in sophisticated tools for marketing analytics might yield more consumer insights, it also tends to inflate risks and drive overspending.

Team Up to Take Better Risks

Lejarraga, Tomás; Müller-Trede, Johannes If you must make a risky decision, you would be wise to make it together with someone who learns about the risk differently than you do. Research by Tomás Lejarraga and IESE's Johannes Müller-Trede explains why.

That Missing Piece: Playing to Our Need to Complete Sets

Barasz, Kate; John, Leslie K.; Keenan, Elizabeth A.; Norton, Michael I. People don't like to leave things incomplete. So, how might framing things in "pseudo sets" nudge or otherwise affect people's choices at the moment of decision? IESE's Kate Barasz and co-authors investigate.

Heart Over Head: How to Sell an Experience

Gallo, Iñigo; Sood, Sanjay; Mann, Thomas; Gilovich, Tom What would make a better gift for the graduating college student in your life: a new laptop or an exotic getaway? And as a marketer, what tactics can be used to sell one option or the other? The rules for experiential marketing, insists IESE's Iñigo Gallo, are completely different from those for marketing material goods.

Keys to Optimize Stakeholder Investments

García-Castro, Roberto; Francoeur, Claude Invest in stakeholders? Absolutely. But how much and when? Research exploring the relationship between stakeholder investments and outcomes finds that it is far from linear. In fact, more is not always better. Under certain boundary conditions, less is best.

Winning Strategies for Team Negotiations

Mehta, Kandarp; Stein, Guido Negotiating as a team has definite advantages over going solo, but it also presents major challenges along the way. Preparation is key. Certain strategies can help you meet team challenges and negotiate better.